On Sunday, the NCAA will release their brackets and the nation will start the task of guessing and re-guessing their brackets at a feverish pace. Can this 12 beat this 5 or maybe this 12? A time honored tradition that co-worker passes to co-worker even though its well known and accepted that the secretary who picks teams by the prettiest name always wins the office pool.

I've decided to do things a little differently this year. I'm gonna start out by picking my sweet 16 before the brackets are out and compare them to the bracket I fill out when they are announced. I am forwarding a theory this year that, regardless of match-ups, the best or hottest teams tend to win. Now don't get me wrong, match-ups are very important. But with a brief study of the current bracket predictions and a little knowledge, you can do just as well by picking before the brackets are announced. Let's get to it shall we?

THE BIG FOUR

Stanford, Duke, North Carolina, and Michigan State are in the sweet 16 without a doubt. Stanford(25-1) is my favorite to win the entire thing despite my feelings about Pac-10 sports in general. A big win over Duke and being challenged very little indicates the ability of this team. Duke(26-4) - the shocking home loss to Maryland not withstanding, the Blue Devils have been awesome. Three losses by a total of five points to three teams with a combined record of 68-13 show their strength. They won't lose in the first weekend. North Carolina (23-5) – is an enigma. They have lost 3 of 5 and their 5 losses were by 13, 17, 10, 20, and 14. They still appear too strong to lose early. Michigan State (24-3) – they seem to be the forgotten team. How a defending champion that has beaten North Carolina, Florida and Kentucky can be forgotten I don't know. They easily belong in the same class as the other three.

ALMOST LOCKED

Illinois, Florida, Iowa State, and Arizona are a level below the aforementioned teams, but are still forces that should easily advance beyond the first weekend. Illinois (23-6) just kinda snuck up on me. It seems that they were all of sudden one of the top teams in the nation. Non-conference wins against Maryland and Arizona highlight their season. Florida (22-5) hung in there all year despite an unbelievably injury filled season. If Brent Wright plays, they are a lock, otherwise…almost a lock. Iowa State (24-4) will not sneak up on anyone again. Larry Eustachy is a heckuva coach and now the nation knows it. Four starting seniors won't be wowed by the tournament atmosphere, either. Arizona (20-7) has won 13 of 15 and seems to be on a roll. The death of Lute Olson's wife earlier this season took its toll on the team, but they seem to have come together since those trying days. This team is dangerous and could make a serious run for the title if Loren Woods plays well.

SWEET BUBBLE

Maryland, Mississippi, Virginia, Kentucky, Wisconsin, and Ohio State are the six strongest teams out of a very even rest of the field. The first eight were relatively easy. This is where it gets tricky. Maryland (20-9) has won five straight games including impressive wins over Wake Forest, Oklahoma, Duke, and Virginia. Teams riding high into the tournament tend stay that way. Mississippi (22-6) – I'm not sure they belong here, but all the bracketing predictions I have seen give them an easy ride to the sweet sixteen. They have some talent and could make a run. Virginia (20-7) was only 9-7 in the ACC but that included wins over North Carolina, Duke, and Wake Forest. Kentucky (19-9) – had a brutal early schedule that had them losing 5 of their first 8 by a total of 14 points, including a 5 point OT loss to UCLA. It paid off with a 12-4 SEC regular season and a #1 seed in the SEC tournament. It will continue to pay dividends. Wisconsin (18-9) has four seniors in its starting lineup and, like Kentucky, has had a brutal schedule. Defense wins games in basketball, too. Ohio State (20-9) – has come on strong with late season wins over Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Penn State. Again, the hot teams continue to move on.

CINDERELLA

Every year there are a couple and this year they are St. Joseph's and Hofstra. St. Joe's (24-5) is not really a sleeper since they are ranked in the top 25, however they are a school that could capture the hearts of America, so I put them here. Only one senior on the starting squad bodes well for next year. Hofstra (25-4) has won 17 in a row and is 15-2 on the road. Those both make me say hmmmm…. This is a team that could do damage in the tourney.

It's not rocket science, really. Just a little knowledge and good ole fashioned intuition. I'll be honest; the pick that was the most difficult was between Syracuse and Ohio State. Either one could be there.

FINAL FOUR?

If I'm going this far, why not a Final Four or championship prediction. Oh well, why not? I think two number ones will make it. A number three and some team later, like a four or five seed. I'll go with Stanford, Michigan State, Arizona, and Kentucky, with Stanford beating Michigan State in the final…

I'll se ya next week with my bracket...

Later...

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