LOCKS

CATCHER - Mike Piazza is the best hitting catcher of all time. There is no doubt of that. His defensive skills have always been in question, but he has developed (matured) into a solid, if unspectacular, receiver. His offensive stats, though, say it all: .325 lifetime batting average, 301 HR's, 937 RBI's, and a .578 slugging percentage. Even if he does switch to the outfield or first base, he will go into the Hall as a catcher. The only question is who's hat will he wear? Ivan Rodriguez may be the best defensive catcher in history. Certainly no one has been so dominant from behind the plate. Rodriguez has kept players from even trying to run on the Rangers during his tenure behind the plate. Offensively he has been great in his own right, hitting a respectable .304 with 191 HR's and 752 RBI's. While not near Piazza's, his .486 slugging percentage isn't bad in its own right(Johnny Bench's, albeit in a different era, was .476). I would venture to say that at least half the major league managers would take Rodriguez over Piazza if they had to choose. I think I would join them.

FIRST BASE - Mark McGwire: Big Mac will be voted in for the home runs, but he has been a solid defensive player his whole career. He even garnered a Golden Glove in 1990. It will be his homeruns, though, for which he is remembered. He will probably finish fourth all-time behind Hank, Babe, and Willie. At his HR pace of the last two years it will take him 835 AB's to get to Willie Mays and 1680 AB's to get to Aaron. I just don't see it happening. '97, '98, and '99 were magical years for McGwire and baseball. Those were his first years over 500 AB's since 1990. I think the magic may be over and he will end up with around 620 HR's.

SECOND BASE - Roberto Alomar: Spitting aside he is the complete five-tool player for the era. His .304 batting average and 435 stolen bases would be enough to raise an eyebrow, but he also has 183 HR's and 983 RBI's as a second baseman. Enough, you say? There's more. The man has, deservedly, won the Golden Glove for 9 of the past 10 years. He's also a winner, going to the playoffs six of the past ten years with three different teams. You can start making his plaque now.

THIRD BASE - I don't see any, not one. NADA. Too bad, it has been such a great position over the years. I am pulling for Puljos, though.

SHORTSTOP - Cal Ripken jr. - Throw away the consecutive game streak and what do you have? A shortstop who has over 400 HR's, 3100 hits, and 1600 RBI's. A shortstop who was rookie of the year, twice MVP and twice All-star MVP. A shortstop who has the respect and admiration of everyone who comes in contact with him. So throw away the consecutive games streak and what do you have? A HOF career. Throw in the streak and you have the most influential player in thirty years. Something most people forget is that he is the reason we have Alex Rodriguez, who may be the most complete baseball player we may ever see. Without Ripken, the myth that big guys can't play shortstop may still be around and we might be seeing Rodriguez at third or in the outfield (where I am sure he would still be a HOF caliber player). Ripken re-wrote the book and I suggest it to everyone; it's a great read.

OUTFIELD - It's a crowded outfield for the HOF in this day and age. Sammy Sosa leads the list as he vies to become the second player to have 4 consecutive seasons of 50 or more home runs. Sammy has developed into a Super Star and he continues to flourish in the spotlight. He is 32 and has 419 HR's. I can see 600 in his future and a plaque in Cooperstown. Ken Griffey jr was the player we all wanted to be five or six years ago. He was 'The Kid'. Just playing around having fun at the ballpark. Somewhere he lost that and it shows in his game. I really don't think he stays in the game that much longer. He may stay to hit 500 or 600 HR's, but the long haul necessary to catch Hank would require him somewhere over 4000 more AB's. That could be as many as eight, nine or ten seasons and I don't think he will stay that long. Juan Gonzalez is just thirty years old and should reach 400 HR's this year. He is enjoying a rebirth after the horrible year in Detroit. 600 HR's and two MVP awards make him a sure fire HOFer. Tim Raines stole over 800 bases while batting .295. He is the fifth leading base stealer in MLB history and deserves to be in the Hall. Tony Gwynn finished in top ten in batting in the NL for 15 straight years, top five for 13, and was the champion eight times. Some people have described him as just a slap single hitter, but he has 134 HR's and over 300 SB. People also forget about his five Golden Glove awards. He is a first ballot guy no doubt. Ricky Henderson was the best leadoff hitter ever and if I was picking fielders for my team of the last forty years, he might be my number one. He is moving towards his three thousand hits and three hundred home runs, but he was the best leadoff man I have ever seen. If he got on, you could see not only the pitcher, but the catcher, second baseman, and opposing manager start to sweat. It was magnificent. He may have made just as big an impact by keeping the pitcher's head out of the game for the batters following him. His 1385 SB's and 40% on base average make him an unstoppable offensive force that deserves every vote cast on the first ballot. Barry Bonds - sometimes you get the feeling he his just starting, but his numbers, when he is done, will be as complete as any who have played the game. He needs somewhere near 2000 AB's to catch Aaron and I think he could do it. I can see him making 700; I just don't know how high in the 700's he will go.

PLAYERS ON THE EDGE OR JUST TOO YOUNG

CATCHER -There are no catchers that I can see on the horizon that need mention as "On the edge" or "Too Young" to tell. The drop-off after Piazza and Rodriguez is staggering.

FIRST BASE (On the edge) - There are a ton of first basemen who have put up incredible numbers during the past fifteen years: Mo Vaughn has basically been forgotten this year, but his .298 lifetime batting average, 299 HR's, 977 RBI's, and .533 slugging percentage are formidable, unfortunately, so is his waistline. I fear there could be a concern for more injuries as he gets older (a la Gwynn). He's only 33, so he still may have 3 or 4 more very productive years. That would get him to about 450 HR's, which in today's world puts him on the edge. Frank Thomas also has the waistline issue as he grows older, but his numbers are a little more solid than Vaughn's. A lifetime .319 hitter with 348 HR's and 1198 RBI's while slugging .577 makes him very close. I think the DH issue and defensive liabilities make him very edgy unless he puts up solid numbers for a few more years. 500 HR's would make him a lock. Jeff Bagwell has roughly the same offensive numbers as his contemporaries, Thomas and Vaughn. His batting average is .303 and he has 338 HR's and 1178 RBI's while slugging .554. He has something else that makes him the most likely of the edgy first basemen to make the Hall. Bagwell has defense AND speed. His defense is awesome at first base, not only physically, but also mentally. Also, he has stolen 172 bases, including 30-30 years in 1997 and 1999. The picture of the complete player, if Bagwell plays to his standard for the next 4 years, he is easily a lock for Cooperstown. Fred McGriff has a long and storied career... maybe too long and too storied. Everything about him says "Great player". Nothing says HOF. He has 436 HR's and .287 lifetime batting average. Only once has he been in the top 5 in MVP voting and he hasn't finished in the top ten of an offensive category since 1995. The recent trade refusal may be the final straw for the voters. He's on the edge, but whatever numbers he finishes with, I don't think he gets in. Rafael Palmiero may have had the quietest Hall of Fame career ever. He is still hitting for power at the age of 36 and shows little signs of slowing down (except his batting average has dipped the last few years). 426 HR's and 1419 RBI's with a .294 batting average certainly puts him in the edgy category. He also won three Gold Gloves; although one of those years he only played first base in 28 games, go figure. In the end I think he will get in, but it may take the veteran's committee.

(Too Young) A number of players are just too young to evaluate, but we think, with some longevity they may make it. The best of them is probably Todd Helton, who hits very well in a Rockies uniform. When all is said done, though, will Rockies players be penalized for playing in Denver? Who knows?

SECOND BASE (On the edge) - Craig Biggio is one of those strange cases. You just aren't sure if he has the stuff. Off hand you think, yeah sure Biggio is HOF caliber, but when you start to look at the career, the numbers just don't add up. He has 4 Gold Gloves, 175 HR's and 362 stolen bases while batting a respectable .292 but somehow the whole thing doesn't jive together. It seems the parts are greater than the sum of the whole. Don't ask me why, it's just my opinion. Jeff Kent has reeled off a handful of great seasons, but I feel he is destined to wallow on the edge forever. He will do just enough to keep in the voting his max time, but he will never get the 75%.

THIRD BASE (On the edge) - Edgar Martinez - He has to have a position, doesn't he? What do you do with him? You hope he retires in the next few years where his power numbers aren't all that great and you really don't have to worry about him. He has some stats in the career top twenty (OB Pct and OPS), but they aren't the glory numbers that the Hall demands. It's a shame he couldn't field. I would have loved to see coaches decide whether to play the guy who hits like Ted Williams and fields like Mavis Williams. In 1998 he played 4 games at first base and had 6 errors. I think it's enough to keep Edgar out.

(Too Young) - Chipper Jones is on pace to have a great career. At age twenty-nine he has hit for over 200 HR's, has over 700 RBI's and has stolen over 100 bases all while hitting over .300. But, at 29, he may be too old to put up HOF numbers. A wait and see thing with Chipper, but I believe he will have to keep up this pace for another six or seven years to merit Cooperstown.

SHORTSTOP (On the edge) There is no one I would consider at this point to be on the edge. I thought I might put Barry Larkin here, but after looking at his career... it's just not enough.

(Too young) The big three are still too young to consider fully. ARod is probably a lock, almost today, if his career ended. At age 25 he has 216 HR and is batting .311 with a .566 slugging percentage. Oh yeah, he has stolen 141 bases while playing a pretty good SS in the field. Barring a catastrophe, he will be a lock. Nomar Garciaparra has only himself to blame if he doesn't get there. Nagging injuries are the only thing that can slow him down. He has improved his batting average at least 15 points every year. He's just getting better. If he can stay off the DL, he's got a good chance to make it. Derek Jeter - The only thing that screams HOF is maybe his batting average and those four rings. Everything else is a good solid player, but not HOF. His leadership skills, and the rings may get him in (as well as the NY writers), but skill wise he is not up there with Nomar and ARod.

OUTFIELD (On the edge) Albert Belle - no matter how good his stats are, he will never get over 50% in the HOF voting and that's a shame because he was a great player. Harold Baines - He's still playing? Barely, but listen to these numbers: 18th in career games, 26th in AB's, 94th in runs, 37th in hits, 28th in total bases, 43rd in doubles, 40th in homeruns, 21st in RBI's, and 70th in walks. The problem is he hasn't played more than twenty-five games in the field since 1986 and only one since 1992. He will be the first long term DH to test the HOF market. I don't think he makes it. Funny thing is, if he were a terrible fielder but still played in the field and put up those same numbers, I think he gets in. Jose Canseco - If he can get some more playing time, I think he can hit 500 HR and 200 SB, that might be enough if he hobnobs with the right people during these last few years of his career. Larry Walker is 34 and has 299 HR's and over 200 SB's. With his BA at .313, OB % at nearly .400, and a slugging % of .569, a goal of 400 HR's should easily put him in the HOF. Garry Sheffield has quantity numbers similar to that of Walker but he is almost two years younger. He could finish with 500 HR's if he plays another six or seven years and that, combined with his other accomplishments, should get him in despite his travails with the press and fans.

(Too young) The future is bright with Andruw Jones, Manny Ramirez, and Vladmir Guerrero. My guess is two out of the three are locks. But if given good odds, I would take three for three. They play at a level that is heads and tails above the rest of the league. It's clear that these twenty-one players are very talented and some of the best to play in their era, but are they Hall of Fame caliber? My guess is that ten of them get in. My guess would be: Bagwell, Palmiero, C Jones, ARod, Garciaparra, Walker, Sheffield, A Jones, Ramirez, and Guerrero make it. The nice thing about these predictions? It may take twenty years for me to be proven wrong.

PITCHERS

Now we cover the less stable side of today's game: the pitchers. Now I'm not talking mentally, although some might argue that point, but pitching in today's world is a very uncertain science. There are theories about arm angles, which pitches to throw, how much to throw, how much to rest, and even how to think. When it comes right down to it, everyday players get to a point where you can count on them to produce in their typical range. With a pitcher, you just never know...

SURE THINGS (The Locks) The measure of a pitching lock in the Hall of Fame is largely up for debate in today's game (We will cover that later), but there a few pitchers that seem to transcend the times and capture our imagination regardless. Randy Johnson - The Big Unit is a specimen that we had never seen before. A tall gangly lefthander with a cannon for an arm and a wildness that terrified every lefty he ever faced... until that talk with Nolan Ryan. I don't remember exactly if it was well documented about what was said, all I know is the results. Since 1993 he has a winning percentage of .742, he has three Cy Young awards, 124 wins, and the respect as a pitcher, not a thrower. He has nearly 3300 strikeouts and probably will be able to pass everyone but Nolan and possibly some other member of this HOF group. A young 37, he has pitched just 2600 innings is still the biggest intimidator in the game. He may have another strong three years in him. Who knows what Ryan did, but it was an instant transformation of another wild, hard thrower into a Hall of Fame pitcher. Tom Glavine - Tom Glavine? I mean, I knew he was pretty good, but the Hall of Fame? Yep. Listen to these stats: two Cy Young awards, five times a twenty game winner, five times leading the NL in wins, 217 wins, a .625 winning percentage, nine times in the top ten for innings pitched, a World Series MVP, and he is nearing 2000 strikeouts. Tom Glavine? That's Tom Glavine? Yep. He has been steady as a rock for over ten years now, I think Tommy's now on the downside, but he should get at least 235 wins and that, combined all of the other accomplishments, easily get him in the Hall Of Fame. Greg Maddux - If there were any man I would want as a starting pitcher on my team, it would be Greg Maddux. The cool-headed, master of painting the corner, has been the best 'pitcher' in baseball for over a decade. Maddux gives the consistency that you don't expect from a pitcher: He is about to have a season of 15 or more wins, and being in the top ten of innings pitched, complete games, and shutouts for the 14th straight season. He also has had 11 straight Gold Gloves, led the NL in ERA four times, and, oh yeah, he's won four Cy Young awards. At the age of 35, he could probably pitch another four years and still contribute greatly to a team. That should get him over 300 wins and he will probably be the last to do it for a very long time. First ballot guy if there ever was one. Pedro Martinez - Anyone remember the little skinny kid that the Expos got back in 1994? We'll he's still skinny, but he's now the best overall pitcher in the game. He only has eight full seasons, but in that time he has won three Cy Young awards, led his league in ERA three times, and been in the top five in strikeouts seven times. He has a .695 winning percentage with over 130 wins. One stat shows his dominance. His slugging percentages allowed during the past three years are: .288, .259, .264. Now that's slugging percentage, not batting average or on-base average. Last year the league hit .167 against Pedro. That's just embarrassing for the rest of the professional hitters in the AL. Pedro hasn't pitched very long, but has dominated like no other in a long time. Right now it's good enough to get him into the Hall. If he pitches another seven years, his numbers could be scary. Roger Clemens - Good thing the Red Sox got rid of him just as he was heading into the twilight of his career. In that twilight he has been 82-32, won two Cy Youngs, two World Series championships, and may be headed for another Cy Young. That would give him an astounding number of six. His other stats are too numerous to mention. If you have an argument about the 'Rocket' getting in the Hall on the first ballot, then just turn the page, I don't want you reading my column. Go pick up the Variety section.

ON THE EDGE Mariano Rivera - I may get some flak for this, but in all honesty, this is the one guy responsible for three of the Yankees four championships. He set a record for World Series scoreless innings. He probably needs a couple more years, but with his post-season dominance, he's got to be on the edge already. John Smoltz - Good news and bad news here. He probably won't finish his career as a starter, but he may be able to match only Mr. Eckersley as the only 100 win/100 save guys around. If John can pitch a few years, you know he has the stuff (physically and mentally) to handle the job. Please Bobby, let Smoltzie have the closer's job. It may be your way back to the World Series... Bret Saberhagen - You just can't leave off a guy with two Cy Youngs, a World Series ring and .591 winning percentage over fifteen years. I hope the Red Sox win the World Series and he retires (yeah, right) David Wells - What did I say about guys with 15 years, a .600 winning percentage, and some World Series rings. He's got 166 wins and that's nothing to sneeze at. Plus, how bad can I guy be who brings the Babe's hat back where it belongs. Kevin Brown - As the broken record starts... 15 years, a .600 winning percentage, World Series ring. Maybe these guys are a dime a dozen. Kevin was once the dominating pitcher. He's still good enough to be on the edge and a few more 15-win seasons could give him 200 wins, which would easily put him in the Hall.

What is a Hall of Fame Career?

Batters seem like they are hitting more than ever (That's true and false) and pitching seems like its worse than ever (True and false also). The question becomes, how do we measure those who will go into the Hall tomorrow against those who went before them?

Today's batters are chastised for the ease of hitting in today's game: the pitching has been horribly stretched by expansion, the ballparks are smaller, and the mother of all excuses...the ball is juiced. The fact is that while the last two seasons are the most prolific in IP/HR, there have been three seasons in which the average runs scored were higher. Those seasons were 1925, 1929,and 1930. Babe Ruth hit 95 HR's with 307 RBI's in two of those two seasons. Batters today have also run into the comparison problem. The problem is they are compared with batters of the 70's and 80's. In those twenty years, runs per game averaged less than 4 a total of seven times. This was more than any other twenty-year period of the modern era (since 1920). I was shocked to learn that my heroes suffered through the worst offensive years of the 'lively ball' era. In fact, 9 out of the 10 worst offensive (Runs/Game) seasons happened in the 60's, 70's, and 80's. Only two of the ten best offensive seasons happened in the past ten years ('99 and 2000).

The question then becomes, "Why are milestone offensive numbers now becoming routine?" The fact is, by the end of this season, 9 out of the 34 people to hit 400 HR's had their significant amount of AB's in the 1990's. But, only two of the top 34 RBI men had their significant number of at-bats in the '90's. It seems that HR's have increased but runs scored have lagged behind, still a little higher, but not at near the rate of HR's. What's the cause of this? My guess is that little ball has, effectively, died. The manufactured run is a thing of the past. Today's offense is a walk, a single, a three run homerun or a single and a double play. All or nothing.

So how does all of this effect who we choose for the Hall of Fame. I think it shows us that we need to look at how well each player has done against the players of his era not those of the past. Take Fred McGriff and Rafael Palmiero. Fred has overall better numbers at this point but his numbers haven't ranked in the top ten for the last six years. Rafael has just gotten better and is consistently in the top ten of many offensive stats. We also need to remember that HR's are not the only measure of a player. I would look more at RBI's, runs, OBP. These numbers are still comparable through the ages.

 The problem that pitchers have is two fold. Starting pitchers have run into the problem of specialized pitching and relief pitchers suffer from a lack of respect for their position. In 1971, every three and a half games ended in a complete game. In 2000, that number was twenty and a half. The impact on pitchers is the magical 300 win level. All of those late inning rallies now give wins to a relief pitcher instead of the starter. We may well see the last 300 game winners in the next five years. Clemens should get it in the next two years. Maddux will need about three more years. After that, it's Glavine as the only other 200 game winner and he would need to average 15 wins for six more years (until he is 40) to reach 300. The bar should probably be moved to about 230 or 240 wins as the magic level for the Hall of Fame. 15 wins for 15 seasons is 225 wins. I think, in today's world that should put anyone in the Hall of Fame.

The save ratio for baseball has been steady for the past twenty years, yet only 2 of the top 100 save leaders are in the Hall. It's understood that many of these players are not yet eligible, but thought should be given to Bruce Sutter, Goose Gossage, Dan Quisenberry, Sparky Lyle, and Dave Righetti. They were all the best in the game in their era. In the next five years, the BBWA are going to come to a cross road on closers. Lee Smith, Dennis Eckersley, Jeff Reardon, and Randy Myers will come up for induction in the next five years. Every other major stat in baseball has its top five eligible players in the Hall. Will saves be the exception? It remains to be seen.

The one factor that will never change for election to the HOF is longevity. You have to have the numbers and you have to have them for a long period of time. There won't be many Sandy Koufax's in the Hall. I would guess that there will be no elections to the Hall of Fame for anybody with less than 14 years of experience unless they have a great rapport with the press and fans (Kirby Puckett, for example).

The Hall of Fame means many things to many people. For me, it means the being the best of those around you. It means you were one of the best players in the time that you played. That's how I picked the players I did. I think they play on a different level than the rest of the league. As much as we try, we cannot compare eras unless we normalize them for the times. I wouldn't want to put most baseball fans through that. Just enjoy what we have now.

The Major League Baseball Hall of Fame is a special place because of how hard it is to get there and how revered its members are. We can spend hours arguing over who belongs and doesn't. We can talk about which era was better and why our favorite was better than your favorite. That's their true gift to us. They allow us to commune with each other long after their playing days are over. They allow us to learn about other time periods in our country's history. They provide continuity to a place that may seem to be tearing itself apart at times.

In the end, the important thing is not who wins the argument, but that there is an argument to have.